National bureau of economic research recession dating
For example, the committee did not announce the March 2001 peak and the onset of the recession until November 26, 2001.
It also is important to wait long enough to identify the trough in the economy that signifies the beginning of an expansion.
In addition, the committee refers to two indicators with coverage of manufacturing and goods: (1) the volume of sales of the manufacturing and trade sectors stated in real terms, adjusted for price changes, and (2) industrial production.
Graphical Illustration The chart below shows the behavior over the business cycle of the monthly annualized growth rate for seasonally adjusted payroll employment.
A popular rule of thumb is that two consecutive quarterly declines in real GDP signal a recession.
This rule is consistent with the dispersion and duration requirements for a recession and with the average recessionary path of real GDP; however, two very small quarterly declines might not produce the depth required for a recession.
The NBER's current President and CEO is Professor James M. The NBER is currently located in Cambridge, Massachusetts with a branch office in New York City.
The postwar average, excluding the 2001 recession, is eleven months.” Calling the 2001 Downturn and Examining Growth in the Post-Bubble Economy For further reading on the subject Dr. This timely (2001-29; October 19, 2001) provides an excellent review both of the process used to identify turning points in the business cycle and the behavior of key economic indicators around the business cycle peak in 2001.
Econ recommends the article, “Has a Recession Already Started? Rudebusch also provides a clear discussion of why a recession based on the official business cycle definitions are a more accurate description of a recession than the “commonly used” business cycle description of two quarterly declines in real Gross Domestic Product.
The program was organized by Jim Stock and Lars Svensson.
Selected papers were published in the The 24th annual International Seminar on Macroeconomics, organized by Jeffrey Frankel and Francesco Giavazzi, was held in Dublin, Ireland, June 8-9, 2001, hosted by Vincent Hogan, University College, Dublin.
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